The PA Primary: What Happens Come Wednesday and Which Situations Favor the Dems?
Here’s a sad truth. After months of pandering to the left, duking it out to see which candidate devotes more time to reading Down with Colonialism!, whoever wins the Democratic primary between Sestak and Specter will begin portraying himself as one who represents Pennsylvania “from the center.”
It’s the only way to compete in competitive statewide races and this will be no different. That’s because whichever candidate wins will be going up against Pat Toomey, who’s consistently held the lead against both Specter and Sestak for months now.
While it’s against our nature to look to Rasmussen for poll results and trends, they’ve been on the mark throughout this campaign season, especially in the Keystone state. A May 6th Rasmussen poll showed Sestak at 47 percent and Specter at 42 percent and here’s what else that survey of 408 primary voters found:
- 61 percent of primary voters approve of Ed Rendell’s performance as governor.
- 80 percent approve of President Obama’s performance as president.
- 46 percent of primary voters approve of Arizona’s new immigration law (45 percent oppose it).
And, by contrast with overall Pennsylvania voters, according to Rasmussen (from more recent surveys):
- Only 40 percent approve of Ed Rendell’s performance as governor.
- 50 percent approve of Obama’s performance as president.
- 58 percent of Pennsylvanians approve of an immigration law like that of Arizona.
- 64 percent support offshore drilling.
Therefore, the biggest problem, starting Wednesday, is going to be combining these two sets of contrasting figures.
Which candidate’s going to have an easier job?
It’s hard to say, but Sestak may eke it out. Sestak has been consistent in his views since the beginning. Specter’s voting record, while always relatively moderate compared to some of the gun-slinging mouth breathers of his former party, clearly took a U-turn when Sestak did his cannonball into this cesspool of a race.
The Democratic machineheads – the president, DNC, DSCC and DCCC – are going to have their hands full this fall playing defense. Depending on both polls and personal issues, they may not help Sestak out at all.
It’s likely the national economy is going to have a huge effect on midterm voter cynicism. Pat Toomey takes the “no” position with his Republican would-be colleagues on all the positions that may come to mind and wants to repeal what he call’s Barack Obama’s “nationalization” of healthcare. His “no,” depending on the state of the nation, may be enough.
If the economy’s upward crawl remains consistent, Sestak should be good. If global worries and the prospect of our own “double dip” find our country’s head still blowing bubbles in the toilet come November, Specter may have been the better choice (he at least can make the argument that he could always change back and has no real position on these issues) than Sestak, who would have a tough time making an argument in favor of his own conservative-to-moderate positions as it pertains to what could be important voter issues – healthcare and the economy.
Even so, PA’s been on a nervous-though-optimistic wave of high-office Democrats for the last decade-plus. Save the economy and this may be the nail PA Dems have been waiting to hammer into the Republicans’ mass-coffin.