Election 2012: New Poll Shows Rick Santorum OVER Obama—But is it Trustworthy?
To hear the Rick Santorum campaign tell it, you’re just a donation away from their guy becoming president. It’s not the general they’re worried about if you want a Republican leading the next four years—it’s the primary.
Because if the former Pennsylvania senator can get passed past Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, he’s set to beat President Barack Obama in the general election. A new poll by Rasmussen Reports says so. It has him up 45-44. “This is clear evidence,” reads a Santorum fundraising email, “that with Rick as our Republican nominee we will return a conservative to the White House.”
Just a couple problems: As it happens, Rasmussen is a former Republican pollster. The company also uses weird logic to conduct its polls.
Rasmussen uses an “approval index” to figure out the president’s numbers, rather than asking whether or not those being polled just approve of the president. For instance, the pollster’s latest, conducted yesterday, shows 26 percent of voters “strongly approve” of the president, while 39 percent “strongly disapprove.” Therefore, the index is -13. Make sense?
Santorum is not surging nationally, though polls in this case show that he—and only he—leads Obama in a head-to-head matchup, amongst all the presidential nominees. Rasmussen polls regularly show conservatives ahead in close races, or at least close in not close races. Whether or not that has anything to do with the strongly-approval index is hard to tell, but Rasmussen only includes “voters” in its surveys—and one is much more likely to call him/herself a Republican voter than a Democrat one at this stage in the game. The polls are regularly accused of having a conservative bias.
And according to the Center for Public Integrity, Rasmussen was a paid consultant to the Republican National Committee and President Bush’s 2004 campaign. The RNC gave the company $95,500 for voter data and “survey cost” while the RNC paid Rasmussen $45,500 for “survey research.”
Santorum is looking to sweep through a few midwest states to get his head back in the game. Whether or not this poll is for real. Hard to tell.
“Because if the former Pennsylvania senator can get passed…”
Past, not passed.
No, Rasmussen does not use “wierd logic” to conduct its polls. The rating that they gave there is an “intensity” rating. Those who strongly disapprove or strongly approve are those who have the greatest effect on swaying public opinion. The DO publish general approval numbers (every day in fact) and they are based on Likely Voters, not Registered Voters, many of whom do not vote. The question that they used to compare Santorum and Obama was essentially: “in a matchup between Obama and Santorum, who would you choose?” That is standard polling. And Santorum led. Perhaps it is an outlier. But it is not “wierd polling”.
Even Gallup switches to likely voters right before the election, which makes one question why they would ever use registered voters prior to the election.
Rasmussen, but a statistically significant margin, has been the most accurate national pollster in every election since 2000, including congressional mid-terms, which are notoriously hard to poll. But of course, you’re counting on your readers being ignorant about polling as you.
Scott Rasmussen is OBVIOUSLY a conservative guy. That does not mean that his methodology is poor. He beats all the other pollsters, conservative, and non conservative alike.
Ugh. Spelling mistakes. The worst mistake of all. Thanks for the heads up.
Since a polling company did business with the RNC, doesn’t that prove their methodologies are trusted in the industry?
If they had done business with the DNC, would they be more credible?
[...] Nutter praises Clarke and his ideas PhillyClout: Mummer advocate to run for 7th Congressional seat Phillynow.com: Election 2012: New Poll shows Rick Santorum OVER Obama, but is it trustworthy? Phillynow.com: [...]
[...] Conservatives Must Use “New” Math. The latest Rasmussen Reports polls shows that in a general election Santorum would edge Obama 45-44. For reals. [Philly Weekly] [...]
A theocratic oligarch who will govern according to his extreme religious views instead of the national constituency.
Didn’t call my house
[...] those numbers are coming from, a search shows it’s likely from Rasmussen, whose polling I’ve never been sure about, especially this far outside the election (they only poll “likely voters,” and voting becomes [...]