Conservative Poll Shows President Obama Leading in Pennsylvania
A poll released Friday by Rasmussen Reports, a conservative polling outlet, has found President Obama still leading Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, though both candidates poll below 50 percent.
The telephone survey of 500 likely voters conducted last week found Obama leading Romney 48 percent to 44 percent—with 4 percent preferring another candidate and 5 percent undecided.
Rasmussen’s numbers in Pennsylvania reflect similarly to those in Ohio, where the firm found Obama leading Romney 47 percent to 45 percent.
According to poll averages, Obama’s lead over Romney in the Keystone state has remained almost unchanged over the last couple months. Rasmussen, which is known for its oft-Republican leaning polls, regularly shows the closest race, though the last few have shown similar results. WeAskAmerica polled mid-July and found a seven-point lead for Obama; Quinnipiac’s last poll, in June, had Obama up by six points. A Real Clear Politics average has Obama up by 7.4 points. No Pennsylvania poll has ever shown Mitt Romney leading.
Also, as we’ve discussed before, it helps to note that 4 percent may be as much help to Obama as it seems. Based on some estimates, 9.2 percent of voters lack proper voting identification, which could tip the election. New York Times columnist Nate Silver noted last week that voter ID may tip the final count for Romney by one-to-three points. The challenge to the law begins this week in Harrisburg. We will have more on that later today.
Nationally, the race remains a bit closer. Rasmussen recently released—and Drudge floated—a poll that found Romney up by two points amongst all Americans. Others, like the latest from Gallup and Fox News, have Obama up by one-to-four points.
And while we’ve already gone on record saying we don’t put too much stake in Rasmussen polls, Scott Rasmussen’s latest column points to the reason polls remain both close and low: Americans aren’t too satisfied with either candidate. What he implied on July 13 is that Obama should be losing, because the economy hasn’t fully recovered yet.
“This may be partly due to the fact that there has been some very modest economic growth over the past couple of years. It also may be because Americans aren’t feeling all that good about either candidate. If the president is re-elected, just 32 percent of voters nationwide believe the economy will get better, while 37 percent believe it will get worse. If Romney wins in November, 36 percent expect the economy to improve, but 35 percent believe the opposite,” he wrote.
Neither candidate has reached 50 percent in head-to-head polling since at least April.