“Poll” Shows Romney Leading Pennsylvania
As PW wrote earlier this campaign season for our September election app guide: “Call us old-fashioned, but we love misleading, often blatantly racist headlines that link us to right-wing websites peddling Beltway-bubble batshit with a xenophobic hatred of President Obama. It helps us get through the day. Which is why we love the Drudge Report. In the lead-up to the election, there are going to be a lot of polls out there—and sometimes we only want to be linked to the ones showing Mitt Romney in the lead.”
And if you haven’t been following, Jesus, it’s been playing out worse than anyone probably could have imagined. Last night, Drudge began peddling a new, “Red” headline: “PA SHOCK POLL: R 49% O 45.”
It sounded like one of those things liberals should worry about. After all, not a single poll, done by anyone, ever, had shown Romney leading Pennsylvania. A little examination into the link (the poll was apparently provided exclusively to the right-wing Washington Examiner) sort of proves that point we made in early September.
According to the Examiner—and kudos to them for admitting this up front—said poll was done by right-wing pollster Susquehanna Polling and Research between the first and second debates. The kicker: It was “conducted for state party officials.” Which Susquehanna often does.
Throughout the campaign season, Susquehanna has shown similar Republican-leaning results in polls conducted independently and in those done for the state Republican party.
On September 21st, we noted a Susquehanna poll showing Romney down by one point to Obama—while similar polls showed the Republican losing by double digits.
Susquehanna conducted another poll earlier this month showing Romney down only two points, 47-45. This particular one got some great attention because it was released after the first debate, where the media generally said Romney came out on top. Other polls showed Romney down about six at the time.
The pollster only spoke to voters who said there was an “excellent” or “good” chance they’ll vote in November—and 96 percent of those were in the “excellent” category. The poll included third party candidates (and that’s good), but found that only two percent of voters in Pennsylvania—two!—are what you may call “undecided.” The poll also showed Senate candidate Tom Smith leading Bob Casey. This is the first time that has ever been the case, too.
Only 20 percent of respondents were from Philadelphia or Allegheny Counties. It’s unclear whether the pollster called cell phones in addition to land lines.
Even as Susquenanna’s polls have shown Romney within striking distance throughout campaign season, the candidate and his money have been moving away from the commonwealth, with a hard shift of resources toward Ohio. Romney hasn’t run an ad here in months.
Which means the campaign’s own internals, often not released by the campaign, are probably telling a different story.
The state Republican party is rumored to have been upset with the Romney campaign for writing off Pennsylvania.
Pollster James Lee told the Examiner, “the race is certainly up for grabs and Republicans have a tendency to never believe it … Romney has made some major inroads.”
Wow, such butthurt…and misinformation.
1. There is nothing exclusive about the poll. Go to Susquehanas website, its there for you to see.
2. Romney had been deemphasizing PA, but is now dedicating more resources there. You are a day late on that one.
3. I dont even understand your point about limiting it to likely voters…that is the most accurate polling.
4. You are incredulous about only 2% undecideds, but that is what is shown in virtually every state. If youre undecided about such a clear choice at this point you arent paying attention and not a likely voter to begin with.
5. If you have a case for them not polling a diverse enough area, make it, because the details on their site certainly sounds like they covered all of the critical areas.
6. You claim that their polling is biased. Thats the same whining you hear about Rasmussen, yet their accuracy in prior polls exceeds every other pollster, both state by state and overall. You’ll have to do better.
Will Romney win PA? Hard to say. That he is even competitive there is a disasterous sign for the Democrats, because it is indicative of the overall trend away from Obama and toward Romney.
I noticed your article didn’t mention how or why the DOJ is suing Gallup?
Perhaps because they actually conduct accurate polls?
Did you write an article for each of the left leaning polls that dramatically over sample democrats? So, I guess as soon as a poll comes out that isn’t blatantly skewed to the left, it has to be wrong? Gallup has had Romney up by 4-7 points every day now for almost a week. Are they right wingers too? What about the Rasmussen polls showing Romney up by several points in key swing states and gaining ground rapidly in others where Obama just a few weeks ago had a stronger lead?
No, I’m certain you did not write articles objecting to polls such as PPP, CNN, New York Times, and others which have blatantly over sampled democrats, projecting a MUCH higher democratic turnout than in 2008, which is completely unrealistic to expect.
You’re a hypocrite Mr LoBasso.
And putting this picture of Mr Romney looking like a puppet makes YOU look like a radical nut.
Robme is going to start a war in Iran…
I’m new to Philadelphia but not the Northeast however these past two years I’m starting to see why this region and Commonwealth horribly underachieves. Central Pennsylvania really thinks its Alabama and have you been to Alabama then you’ll realize Central Pennsylvania is in a planet on its own however the geniuses of Greater Philadelphia thinks “Philadelphia” issues end once they get into Suburban Station… they need to think again as those (R)’s ain’t the (R) they are thinking of. Really, I don’t understand why could anybody vote (R) if you live in the Greater Philadelphia region. These republicans ain’t your fathers republicans as they have gone full ape poop if anybody didn’t notice. Really you think Philadelphia is going to do better under a Romney Administration? They are not even campaigning to you. The GOP has written you off if you take SEPTA as there voter base thinks we are all queers anyway due to our region: The Northeast. Really, don’t hop the megabus up to New York and then wonder why we don’t have cool (bleep) like they do to only vote for the (R). Also, stop enabling “Central Pennsylvania” as this whole Penn State scandal should have more eyes up there than ever before due to its a epic black eye that the Commonwealth will be paying for decades to come.
Uh-oh. Der Wunderkind is in trouble in the Keystone State. C’mon Philly, time to put the fraud machine into high gear.