As Romney Gets Ready for PA Visit, Pattern Shows Republicans Are Losers Here

"I'm coming...I'm coming!"

"I'm coming...I'm coming!"

After rumors circulated about Mitt Romney coming into Pennsylvania this weekend, we can finally confirm: He will be in Yardley on Sunday. On a farm. That is all.

According to news reports and analysts over the past few days, Romney’s trip and accompanying commercial carpet-bombing may just be a strategic fake-out. (They spend here, Obama moves resources of out Ohio and into the commonwealth.) Or it might be a desperation move. (Romney slowly sees himself losing Ohio, which it’s generally agreed upon he needs to win, and then is all, “Well, maybe Pennsylvania could happen; after all, it’s a place, too.”) Or it’s a farewell tour. (Goodbye cruel world! You haven’t seen the last of me!) Or, I don’t know…something about polls’ margins of error?

Either way, the Pennsylvania move is a bit odd. Both campaigns wrote off Pennsylvania as a done deal earlier this summer. Even the super PACs moved out as U.S. Senate candidate Tom Smith shook his fist at the clouds.

President Obama will not be joining Mitt in other parts of the state (although Jill Biden will be making an appearance in Philly and the burbs this weekend), and the Democratic Party is out with an email telling us we should pay no mind to Romney’s Pennsylvania farm rally. After all, they say, it’s “déjà vu all over again.” Republican candidates often find themselves in Pennsylvania the weekend before an election, even though no Republican has won the state since George H.W. Bush in 1988. And we hate to say it (because it may invite more political spam), but they’ve got a point.

Check it out:

2008

McCain Made A Late Play For Pennsylvania In 2008, But Lost The State … By 11 Points. ”Despite a last-minute frenzy for Pennsylvania’s electoral plenty, John McCain failed to switch this traditionally blue state, which awarded its 21 votes to Barack Obama and helped him win the presidency. Polls closed at 8 p.m. and, moments later, based on exit poll data, NBC called the state for Obama. …OBAMA — 55% MCCAIN — 44%” [Baltimore Sun, 11/5/08]

2004

Bush Lost Pennsylvania in 2004, Even After Visiting the State on the Day Before the Election. ”‘If you believe America should fight the war on terror with all our might and lead with unwavering confidence in our ideals, I ask you to come stand with me,’ Bush told supporters on Nov. 1 in Burgettstown, Pennsylvania. …Kerry won Pennsylvania, the second-biggest battleground state, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon and Washington state.” [Bloomberg, 11/3/04]

2000

The Bush Campaign Claimed Momentum and Enthusiasm in Pennsylvania Leading up to the 2000 Election. ”Republicans claim to have more energy, born of a lust to retake the White House after eight years, even while acknowledging that women heavily favor Gore’s positions. Both sides can make credible claims of potential victory. ‘I just think it’s dead even,’ said Leslie Gromis, who heads Bush’s campaign in Pennsylvania. ‘One day Gore is up 1 or 2. One day Bush is up 1 or 2.’ In Montgomery County, Tommy Ryan, political director for the county GOP, said: ‘I believe that Bush is ahead, but not by a very large margin. Montgomery County voters are among the more independent and educated and I think trust matters to Montgomery County voters.’ Ryan measures enthusiasm for Bush in terms of requests for yard signs and bumper stickers, which he said increased substantially after the second presidential debate.” [Chicago Tribune, 10/28/00]

Bush Lost Pennsylvania in 2000. ”Ohio (21 electoral votes) goes to Bush, which is a sweet relief to the Governor’s campaign, sent reeling by Gore’s win in Pennsylvania.” [TIME, 11/7/00]

1996

Bob Dole on Nov. 1, 1996: “Don’t Give Up On Pennsylvania. Things Are Happening Up There.” ”‘I think what it demonstrates is that we’ve had a more aggressive, better organized, grass-roots campaign. It also shows what persistence will do,’ said Tim Mara, spokesman for the Dole-Kemp campaign in Pennsylvania. ‘Our message is finally getting some traction,’ he added. ‘The fight is to the end.’ And Dole, on the campaign trail between Tampa, Fla., and Miami, was buoyed by the trend. In a telephone conversation with Gov. Ridge monitored by campaign reporters, Dole said: ‘Don’t give up Pennsylvania. Things are happening up here.’ The Dole campaign scheduled a stop yesterday for 7 a.m. tomorrow in Philadelphia.” [Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 11/1/96]

Dole Lost Pennsylvania in 1996. ”Pennsylvania held to a decades-old tradition of going with the winner. Clinton carried the state and its 23 electoral votes with about 52 percent of the vote.” [Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 11/6/96]

1992

George H.W. Bush Campaigned in Pennsylvania on the Day of the Election in 1992. ”Much of the day carried the ring of a valedictory, a sense that — win or lose — this was almost surely Mr. Bush’s last campaign. Throughout, he battled the perception, spread by polls that dominated the weekend’s news, that the race may be slipping from his grasp. Pounding his fist, hatless but oblivious to a cold drizzle at the rally in Pennsylvania, he exhorted the crowd to remember that Tuesday’s election is not a poll, but is ‘up to what the American people think.’” [New York Times, 11/3/92]

Bush Lost Pennsylvania in 1992 by 9 Points. [uselectionatlas.org, accessed 10/30/12]

11 Responses to “ As Romney Gets Ready for PA Visit, Pattern Shows Republicans Are Losers Here ”

  1. Jonathan says:

    We have come too far to even consider a man like Mr Romney. The economy is finally beginning to show signs of improvment after some of the hardest years in our nations history. We are ending two wars that have cost us precious lives and cost more money than any of us can ever imagine. And most of all, we have come too far, women have come much too far, every person of color has come much too far, as have all minorities in this country, for us to choose to take such a giant step backward, and elect a man with such clearly unethical and unequal social beliefs. We must move forward.

  2. Jim S says:

    Be silent and the World think thee a fool or write and remove all doubt. I love it any comment that isn’t complimentary is political spam. Your immaturity is laughable little boy. Do you go home and tell your Mother that people said mean things to you?
    The good news for you is my reading of your venomous garbage probably doubled you circulation. LOL

  3. Randy LoBasso says:

    Hey Jim S! Sorry if I wasn’t clear, but when I say “spam,” I’m talking about email spam sent bcc to reporters by political operatives, not comments below blogs. Oftentimes, those emails are just full of canned talking points. But in this case, I thought the spam was pretty informative, which explains why I cited it here.

    Nevertheless, I did tell my mom on you.

  4. Rizz says:

    I don’t know what trend you’re talking about but Romney is gaining traction here in PA. He’s even ahead in some polls and the left is scared to death. If PA is such a lock, why is Biden here? Why campaign someplace you’re going to win? Fpr every Obama sign I see there are 10 to 15 more Romney signs.

    And please, with all due respect, you’re posts on other races to try and prove a false point is ridiculous. McCain lost because he was a RINO, there was no real support for him because he was just a terrible candidate. Bush came within 2 points of beating Kerry, I think he would have won if there was no fraud taking place.

    What makes those races different for this race is simple, Barack Obama. We do not want what he has to offer, he is a total and complete failure. We are suffering because of his failed progressive ideology.
    Romney will be elected four days from now.

  5. Jeff says:

    I think Obama will take PA but only by 2 or 3%. If Romney had blitzed the state like he has Ohio he would have won hands down.

  6. Real American says:

    Honestly everything Randy writes is pure shit. His leftist propaganda truly make me ashamed to share citizen status with him. What the fuck happened to this country. I am 30 years old an am not privileged was never handed a thing in life. I came from poverty and was raised by a single mother who did not take a dimes worth of social programs. She raised me with the belief that the government will never help you and to take any handout from that government is to give in to the new slavery that is the welfare state. All of you liberals har this idea of Creating a utopia in which everyone is successful and prospers. That however Is and will never exist. We need to stop punishing those fortunate enough to be successful. A lot of these people who liberals detest are driven, hard working job creators. What the fuck planet do liberals come from. I believe all of you just had flat out poor parents.

  7. Rizz0 says:

    Romney isn’t ahead in a single poll, Rizz. He’s tied in one.

  8. Ruth Earnshaw says:

    Send the kids in the White House back home! I haven’t forgotten the debates and the laughing Biden and Obama’s weirdness and this year I am more informed on Obama’s mentor Frank Marshall Davis. Goggle him and research for yourself let’s take back this country and vote Obama out! Also do not forget the men who died in Beghanzi…and how a movie was blamed for the attack see Argo the movie a nice line from the movie which we have seen in action for the last 4 years, “if you want to sell a lie get the media to sell it for you”.

    As a side note – I lived through 4 years of the groper Clinton……none of the women who came forth to testify were supported by the liberal women’s groups. One gal had been having an affair for over 7 years. Obviously, this man can’t be trusted!

  9. The subject and content were just great. I think that your insight is deep, its just well thought out and really happy to see someone who knows how to put these thoughts down so well.

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